EU’s 2040 Climate Goal Under Fire: Loopholes Risk Weakening Leadership

The EU faces criticism over its newly approved 2040 climate target, with experts warning that the bloc may be undermining its own leadership on climate action. Last week, the European Council adopted an amended climate law requiring member states to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels by 2040.

While the Council presents this as a step toward achieving full climate neutrality by 2050, some experts argue that the plan falls short of ambition. The European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change had recommended reductions of 90–95% by 2040 relative to preindustrial levels, placing the EU’s target at the lower end of expert guidance.

A controversial loophole in the law allows member states to use international carbon credits starting in 2036, covering up to 5% of 1990 EU emissions. This means only 85% of reductions must occur domestically. Critics argue that the safeguards for these credits are insufficient and could undermine genuine, home-grown emission cuts.

Climate Action Tracker also points out gaps in the EU’s approach to the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector. Without clear 2035 or 2040 LULUCF targets, it’s unclear how much of the EU’s emissions reduction will come from real cuts versus carbon storage. Over-reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) could similarly delay the transition away from fossil fuels, says Sarah Heck, a senior analyst at Climate Action Tracker.

While the EU claims the interim target will reassure citizens, investors, and industry about the clean transition ahead, experts warn that loopholes and unclear sectoral targets risk weakening Europe’s climate leadership and delaying the structural transformation needed to meet net-zero goals.