Global Temperatures Expected to Surpass 1.5°C Threshold Within Five Years, UN Agency Warns

According to the latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, there is an 80 per cent probability that at least one year between now and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded. Scientists project that global temperatures during this period will range between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900).

Rising risk of breaching key thresholds

The report notes that global temperatures in 2024 were already estimated to be between 1.34°C and 1.41°C higher than pre-industrial levels. Looking ahead, the long-term warming average for the period 2015–2034 is expected to approach 1.44°C.

Researchers calculate there is an 86 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years will exceed the 1.5°C threshold. Additionally, there is a 70 per cent chance that the average temperature across the entire five-year period will surpass this level.

Although there is only a one per cent probability of a single year exceeding 2°C of warming, scientists stress that even temporary breaches of 1.5°C are significant warning signs of a rapidly intensifying climate crisis.

The WMO clarified that the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target is based on long-term averages over two decades, meaning the limit has not yet been officially crossed. However, short-term spikes indicate that the world is moving dangerously close to that boundary.

Uneven impacts across regions

The projections also point to major regional differences in climate impacts. Increased rainfall is expected in areas such as the African Sahel, northern Europe and parts of South Asia. Meanwhile, the Amazon region is likely to face continued dry conditions, raising concerns about prolonged drought.

Arctic warming far outpaces global trends

The report highlights particularly alarming trends in the Arctic, where warming is occurring much faster than the global average. Over the next five winters, temperatures in the region are expected to be around 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 average—more than three times the global rate of increase.

This rapid warming is expected to accelerate the loss of sea ice, especially in regions such as the Barents, Bering and Okhotsk Seas. The continued decline of Arctic ice is likely to contribute to rising sea levels and disrupt global weather systems.

Urgent call for climate action

As the world approaches this critical period, the World Meteorological Organization is urging governments to intensify climate action. The agency stresses that immediate efforts are needed to limit long-term warming and avoid more severe and irreversible impacts in the decades ahead.

Scientists warn that while the 1.5°C threshold has not yet been permanently crossed, the narrowing margin for action underscores the urgency of reducing emissions and strengthening global climate policies.