Global Temperatures Set to Stay Near Record Highs Over Next Five Years, UN Warns

The findings suggest there is a strong likelihood that warming trends will continue, with an 80 per cent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.

Rising probability of breaching 1.5°C threshold

Scientists warn that there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a critical benchmark established under the Paris Agreement.

In addition, the report estimates a 70 per cent probability that the average global temperature over the five-year period from 2025 to 2029 will also surpass this threshold. While long-term warming is still considered below 1.5°C when measured over decades, these short-term exceedances are becoming increasingly frequent.

The projected global temperature increase during this period is expected to range between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 baseline.

Escalating climate impacts

Researchers emphasise that even small increases in global temperatures can significantly amplify extreme weather events. Rising heat levels are expected to intensify heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, glacier melt and sea-level rise, further threatening human livelihoods and natural systems.

The Arctic region is forecast to warm at a rate more than three times faster than the global average, with winter temperatures projected to rise by around 2.4°C compared to the 1991–2020 baseline. This accelerated warming is expected to contribute to continued sea ice loss, particularly in regions such as the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.

Regional climate variations

The report also highlights uneven changes in precipitation patterns across the globe. Wetter-than-average conditions are expected in regions including the African Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and parts of Siberia. In contrast, the Amazon region is likely to face drier conditions during the same period.

Meanwhile, South Asia has experienced above-average rainfall in recent years, a trend that is expected to continue overall, though variations between seasons remain likely.

No sign of relief ahead

Ko Barrett warned that the data offers little optimism for the near future, noting that the world has already experienced its ten warmest years on record. Continued warming, she said, will have increasing negative consequences for daily life, economic systems and the natural environment.

She stressed that ongoing monitoring and climate forecasting are essential tools for policymakers, helping them adapt to evolving conditions and make informed decisions.

Long-term goals still in focus

Although temporary temperature spikes above 1.5°C are becoming more likely, the threshold defined in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term averages measured over decades. Scientists caution, however, that as global temperatures continue to rise, such exceedances will become more frequent and harder to avoid.

The report underscores the urgency of stronger climate action, particularly as countries prepare updated national commitments ahead of upcoming global climate negotiations.