‘Super El Niño’ Fears Rise as Global Temperatures Could Surge Again
Scientists are warning that global temperatures could spike to new extremes as the likelihood of an El Niño event later this year continues to grow.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is a 62% probability that El Niño conditions will develop this summer. While forecasts at this stage carry some uncertainty, indicators such as rising subsurface ocean heat and weakening trade winds suggest increasing chances of its formation.
If El Niño does occur, there is roughly a one-in-three chance it could become “strong” by the end of 2026, potentially amplifying global temperatures and extreme weather events.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that disrupts normal ocean and atmospheric patterns. It happens when trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm water in the Pacific Ocean to shift eastward toward South America. This suppresses the rise of cooler deep water, leading to higher sea surface temperatures.
In contrast, La Niña—the more common phase—pushes warm water westward, allowing cooler water to rise and generally lowering global temperatures.
El Niño events typically increase global average temperatures and are associated with more intense heatwaves, floods, and extreme rainfall. Even a standard El Niño can raise global temperatures by around 0.1–0.2°C.
However, the term “Super El Niño” is not an official scientific classification. Scientists instead measure strength using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), where stronger events correspond to higher temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean.
Some experts remain cautious. Researchers at Columbia University note that it may be too soon for an exceptionally strong El Niño, given that a significant event already occurred between 2023 and 2024. They suggest the ocean may need more time to “recharge” heat energy—although human-driven climate change could be accelerating this process.
Ultimately, scientists emphasize that while El Niño plays a role in short-term warming, the more pressing concern is the rapid and ongoing rise in ocean surface temperatures driven by global warming.