This development does not mean that the internationally agreed-upon 1.5°C limit, established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, has been permanently breached. That target refers to long-term warming trends measured over multiple decades. However, scientists warn that the world is now dangerously close to surpassing the threshold permanently, as fossil fuel emissions continue to drive global temperatures higher.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the recent surge in temperature records as evidence of "climate breakdown," warning that humanity is on a "road to ruin" if immediate action is not taken. In his New Year message, he called on world leaders to take drastic measures to cut emissions of planet-warming gases in 2025, stressing that there is no time to waste.
Climate Change Is the Main Driver of Record-Breaking Heat
According to Copernicus data, the primary cause of the record-breaking heat in 2024 was human-induced climate change, with greenhouse gas emissions—particularly carbon dioxide—remaining at historically high levels. While natural weather patterns such as El Niño contributed to warming, scientists emphasize that their impact was secondary.
"By far and away, the largest contribution impacting our climate is greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere," said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, in an interview with the BBC.
The 1.5°C threshold has become a key symbol in international climate negotiations, with many vulnerable nations considering it a matter of survival. According to a landmark UN climate report from 2018, the risks of climate change—such as deadly heatwaves, rising sea levels, and biodiversity loss—increase significantly beyond this level. Scientists warn that exceeding 2°C of warming would bring catastrophic consequences, making every fraction of a degree crucial in shaping the future of the planet.
Extreme Weather Events Intensified by Global Warming
The impact of record-breaking global temperatures was felt worldwide in 2024. West Africa experienced unprecedented heatwaves, prolonged droughts hit parts of South America, extreme rainfall battered central Europe, and powerful tropical storms struck North America and South Asia.
Wildfires also raged across multiple regions, including California, where destructive fires fueled by high winds and an ongoing drought overwhelmed Los Angeles this week. Scientists warn that as temperatures continue to rise, conditions that enable extreme wildfires will become more frequent and intense.
In addition to rising air temperatures, the world's oceans also set new records in 2024. Sea surface temperatures reached an all-time high, while atmospheric moisture levels hit unprecedented levels, further intensifying storms and flooding.
Unexpected Acceleration in Warming Raises Concerns
While scientists anticipated that 2024 would be exceptionally warm due to the lingering effects of El Niño, the scale of the increase has surprised many. Some researchers suggest that the recent acceleration in warming could be a sign of additional, previously underestimated climate dynamics at play.
"There has been around 0.2°C of extra warming since 2023 that we can't fully explain," said Helge Gößling, a climate physicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. Theories for this unexplained warming include a reduction in low-level cloud cover, which normally helps cool the planet, and the persistence of ocean heat even after the end of El Niño.
"The question is whether this acceleration is something persistent linked to human activities, meaning we will have steeper warming in the future, or whether it is part of natural variability," Gößling added. "At the moment, it's very hard to say."
Urgent Action Can Still Limit Future Warming
Despite the alarming trend, scientists stress that humanity still has control over the future climate trajectory. While exceeding 1.5°C on a long-term basis now appears likely, rapid and sustained cuts to fossil fuel emissions could still prevent even more dangerous levels of warming.
"Even if 1.5 degrees is out the window, we can probably still limit warming to 1.6°C, 1.7°C, or 1.8°C this century," said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth. "That's going to be far, far better than if we continue burning coal, oil, and gas unchecked and end up at 3°C or 4°C. Every fraction of a degree still matters."
With global temperatures continuing to rise, experts say the coming years will be critical in determining whether humanity can avoid the worst consequences of climate change.