2024 US Election's Impact on Climate Policy: Stark Choices Ahead
The 2024 US presidential election carries significant weight, particularly for global climate policy. The two leading candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, present vastly different approaches to addressing the climate crisis.
Trump's Approach: If re-elected, Trump has pledged to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement once again, as he did during his first term. His administration's focus would likely be on expanding oil and gas production, and his campaign has hinted at drafting executive orders to withdraw the US from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which underpins the Paris Agreement. Such a move would make rejoining the Paris accord much more difficult for future administrations, as it would require Senate approval, which is uncertain given the representation of states with strong oil and gas interests.
Moreover, Trump's presidency could jeopardize ongoing and potential bilateral climate agreements, such as the prospective US-EU climate deal. His approach could lead to increased tensions with the EU, which has implemented a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) to tax imports from countries without adequate carbon pricing. Without climate-friendly subsidies or negotiations, the EU might fully apply CBAM to US exports, potentially sparking a trade conflict.
Trump's stance on China could also unravel progress in global climate cooperation. The Sunnylands statement, a US-China agreement to work together on climate change, would likely be undermined by Trump's proposed tariffs and his skepticism about China's adherence to international agreements.
Harris's Approach: Kamala Harris, as the Democratic nominee, offers a stark contrast with her support for the Green New Deal and her history of taking legal action against environmental offenders. If elected, Harris would likely seek to strengthen international climate cooperation and reinvigorate negotiations with China. She might also consider reversing Biden's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar panels, which, while designed to protect domestic industries, also impede climate crisis adaptation and emissions reduction.
However, Harris would face a significant dilemma. She would need to balance the goals of promoting domestic manufacturing jobs and economic independence from China with the urgent need to combat climate change. Prioritizing one could undermine the other, highlighting the difficult trade-offs that the next US president will have to navigate.
The outcome of the 2024 election will have profound and far-reaching consequences for global efforts to address the climate crisis, making the stakes exceptionally high.