Provisional data from the Met Office indicate that the country's average temperature for the year is currently running well above the previous record set in 2022. While a colder period forecast around the end of December could still narrow the gap, forecasters say the balance of evidence points toward a new record.

Even if late-year temperatures dip, 2025 is expected to rank among the UK's warmest years since records began, alongside 2022 and 2023.

"This outcome should not come as a shock," said Mike Kendon, a senior climate scientist. He noted that average annual temperatures across the UK have risen by roughly 1°C over the past 40 years.

Final confirmation will depend on conditions in the closing weeks of the year, but current projections suggest 2025 is more likely than not to finish at the top of the historical ranking. Kendon warned, however, that even this milestone may prove short-lived.

"Records are now being broken with increasing frequency," he said, pointing out that since the early 2000s the UK has repeatedly set new annual temperature highs, each warmer than the last.

If the figures are confirmed, 2025 would become only the second year on record in which the UK's annual mean temperature has surpassed 10°C. It would also mean that four of the five warmest years since measurements began in the late 19th century have occurred within the past decade.

Earlier assessments have already underscored the trend. The UK experienced its hottest summer on record this year, as four separate heatwaves drove the average temperature for June, July and August to unprecedented levels. Notably, all of the five warmest summers ever recorded have taken place since 2000.

"In climate terms, this is an exceptional period," Kendon said. "The scale and pace of change we are observing have no precedent in records stretching back to the 19th century."