The coming year is set to determine whether recent commitments to protect marine life can withstand legal, political and economic pressures.
High seas governance enters uncharted territory
On 17 January 2026, a long-standing gap in international law is due to close. The High Seas Treaty, formally known as the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction agreement, will come into force, marking the first comprehensive framework for managing waters that lie beyond any single country's control.
For decades, these remote areas — covering more than two-thirds of the global ocean — have been vulnerable to illegal fishing, environmental degradation and labour abuses, largely because governance was fragmented and enforcement weak. The treaty aims to change that by creating shared rules for conservation, environmental assessments and the fair distribution of benefits derived from marine genetic resources.
Advocates describe the agreement as a historic turning point. By enabling the creation of marine protected areas in international waters and strengthening scientific cooperation, the treaty seeks to bring order to regions previously described as lawless.
Yet 2026 will be critical not because the treaty exists, but because its institutions must be built. The year is expected to host the first global conference dedicated to implementing the agreement, where oversight bodies, funding mechanisms and compliance structures will be established.
Observers warn that these technical decisions, though unlikely to capture public attention, will determine whether the treaty delivers meaningful protection or becomes another under-enforced promise.
Enforcement challenges loom large
Even with a legal framework in place, enforcement remains a central concern. Unlike national waters, the high seas lack a dedicated policing authority. Monitoring will instead rely on satellite surveillance, vessel tracking and international cooperation — tools that have improved significantly in recent years but still face political and logistical limits.
Concerns also persist closer to shore. Many existing marine protected areas within national waters allow industrial activity to continue, undermining their ecological purpose. Conservation groups argue that governments must strengthen protection at home if international efforts are to carry credibility.
Deep-sea mining faces a decisive moment
Another major fault line in ocean policy will sharpen in 2026: whether deep-sea mining should be allowed to proceed.
A growing coalition of countries has already rejected the practice or imposed precautionary pauses, citing scientific uncertainty and environmental risk. Others argue that minerals found on the ocean floor are essential for renewable energy technologies and supply-chain security.
Critics counter that seabed mining would disturb vast areas of previously unexplored ecosystems, releasing sediment plumes that could spread through the water column and cause long-term damage far beyond extraction sites.
The legal landscape adds further tension. While the mineral-rich seabed of international waters falls under the authority of the International Seabed Authority, some major economies are not party to the legal convention that governs it. This raises the prospect of unilateral action and legal disputes if mining begins without global consensus.
Negotiations to establish binding rules have stalled for years. Talks are set to resume in 2026, with mounting pressure from environmental groups, scientists and some governments to impose a moratorium until impacts are fully understood.
At the same time, alternative arguments are gaining traction: that many seabed minerals could be recovered through recycling, less destructive land-based mining, or substituted altogether as technologies evolve.
Ocean diplomacy gains momentum
International attention on ocean issues continues to rise, helped by the political appeal of marine conservation. Unlike climate mitigation, some ocean protections can deliver visible ecological recovery within a few years, making them attractive to governments facing short electoral cycles.
Major international ocean summits planned for 2026 are expected to focus on biodiversity loss, climate impacts and the future of coastal communities, particularly in regions already experiencing rising sea levels and extreme weather.
For Europe, the year will also be pivotal domestically. Reforms aimed at aligning economic activity with marine protection are advancing, with proposals to strengthen fisheries control, expand vessel monitoring and improve seafood traceability across supply chains.
Environmental groups are pushing for stricter measures, including bans on destructive fishing practices and legally binding targets to protect large portions of regional waters.
From ambition to accountability
As 2026 approaches, the direction of travel is clear, but outcomes remain uncertain. Legal frameworks are emerging, political commitments are multiplying and public awareness is growing. What remains to be seen is whether governments can translate ambition into enforcement, restraint and long-term stewardship.
For the world's oceans — vast, interconnected and under mounting pressure — the year ahead may prove to be less about new promises, and more about whether existing ones can finally be honoured.