A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters shows that while human-driven climate change has halved summer sea ice cover since the late 1970s, the pace of decline has eased over the past 20 years. Between 2005 and 2024, the Arctic lost ice at the slowest rate recorded since satellites began monitoring in 1979.
At its annual minimum in September, sea ice cover shrank by 0.35 million square kilometres in the first decade of this period, and by 0.29 million square kilometres in the second—four to five times slower than the record pace of loss between 1993 and 2012.
Despite this, the Arctic remains profoundly altered: compared with the 1980s, more than 10,000 cubic kilometres of sea ice have been lost, enough to fill billions of Olympic-sized swimming pools. In September 2012, ice cover dropped to just 3.41 million square kilometres—the smallest extent on record—fueling speculation over when the region might see its first "ice-free" summer.
A pause, not a recovery
Lead researcher Dr Mark England, of the University of Exeter, said the apparent slowdown is linked not to reduced warming but to natural climate variability overlaying the long-term human-caused trend.
"This is only a temporary reprieve," he explained. "The slowdown is consistent with climate model simulations. At some point, the pace of ice loss will accelerate again, likely faster than the long-term average."
Climate models suggest that when the pause ends, the Arctic could see ice shrinking by as much as 0.6 million square kilometres per decade faster than the current long-term trend.
Dr Gaëlle Veyssière, a sea ice and snow physicist at the British Antarctic Survey who was not involved in the study, said the results should not be misinterpreted:
"Arctic sea ice is still far lower than it was in the 1980s. The pause is not a sign of recovery—it simply reflects the natural ups and downs of climate variability."
Internal climate swings
Researchers say this slowdown has roughly a 50% chance of lasting another five years and a 25% chance of persisting for a decade. The study attributes the pause to internal climate variability—the natural, short-term fluctuations caused by the interaction of Earth's oceans, atmosphere, and ice.
Without the influence of greenhouse gases, the researchers note, Arctic sea ice would likely have expanded during this period. Instead, the underlying warming trend has prevented any genuine recovery.
Dr England compared the dynamic to a ball rolling downhill. "The hill is climate change," he said. "The ball keeps going downwards, but it may sometimes bounce sideways or even upwards when it hits an obstacle. That doesn't change its overall direction—eventually, it will reach the bottom."
The bigger picture
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average in recent decades. This "Arctic amplification" has already reshaped ecosystems, disrupted Indigenous livelihoods, and contributed to extreme weather far beyond the polar region.
Scientists warn that while the current slowdown may provide a brief pause in the most dramatic year-to-year losses, it does not alter the long-term trajectory. An ice-free Arctic summer remains a matter of when, not if.