Climate Change and Extreme Weather: The Deadly Impact of Wayanad Landslides
Over the past decade, the state has seen a significant increase in extreme weather events, including Cyclone Ockhi in 2017 and severe floods in 2018 and 2019.
Kerala's Wayanad district recently experienced one of its most catastrophic landslides in recent memory, triggered by relentless monsoon rains. The disaster, which began in the early hours of July 30, 2024, has resulted in over 150 deaths and numerous injuries, with the death toll expected to rise as rescue operations proceed. The Indian Army and other rescue teams are actively involved in relief efforts in the affected areas.
Known for its heavy monsoon rainfall, Kerala receives an average of 3,107 mm of rain annually, with 75% of it falling during the June-September monsoon season. The state's unique geography, bordered by the Arabian Sea to the west and the Western Ghats to the east, makes it particularly vulnerable to heavy rains. However, experts argue that factors beyond meteorology, such as climate change and unplanned development, are worsening the situation.
Dr. Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the University of Reading, UK, highlights the stark contrast in rainfall patterns across Kerala this season. Some districts experienced above-average rainfall, while others, including Wayanad, recorded below-average precipitation. Dr. Deoras suggests that this spatial variability could become more pronounced with ongoing global warming.
Rising Extreme Weather Events
The state has witnessed a steady rise in extreme weather events over the past decade, including Cyclone Ockhi in 2017 and devastating floods in 2018 and 2019. A report titled "A review on the extreme rainfall studies in India" indicates that the frequency and intensity of extreme monsoon downpours in India have increased over the past 50 years, despite significant year-to-year variability. Trends suggest that extreme rainfall events are likely to continue increasing in the coming decades.
Climate scientists attribute this trend to human-induced climate change, which has led to an increase in extreme rainfall events (EREs) associated with monsoons, thunderstorms, and localized cloudbursts. Mariam Zachariah, a research associate at Imperial College London, explains that climate change is significantly altering Wayanad's rainfall patterns. The previously cool, humid environment now experiences drier, hotter summers and intense monsoon downpours, raising the risk of landslides.
"This change has increased the risk of landslides. Dry soils absorb less water, and heavy rainfalls cause run-offs that can lead to landslides, such as the ones we've seen this week," said Zachariah.