However, none of the three nations provided specific details or targets for what a 1.5°C-compatible NDC would entail. Many observers were left frustrated, particularly in light of the Troika's expanding fossil fuel ambitions. "We are witnessing a worrying case of cognitive dissonance," said Romain Ioualalen from Oil Change International, highlighting the failure to provide the needed leadership during this critical time for climate action.
Brazil's head of delegation had previously suggested there is no clear definition of a 1.5°C-aligned climate plan, raising concerns of "1.5-washing." Despite this, many climate experts and civil society groups argue otherwise. This week, they published an open letter outlining "ten essential tests" for assessing the compatibility of NDCs with the 1.5°C target, focusing on halting fossil fuel expansion, setting measurable sectoral goals, scaling up climate finance, and preserving ecosystems.
Alden Meyer, a senior associate at E3G, emphasized the urgency: "The success or failure of the Paris Agreement will be determined in the next eight or nine months." The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that to stay below 1.5°C, global emissions must peak before 2025 and decline by 60% by 2035, reaching net-zero by mid-century.
Fossil Fuels at the Core of Debate
Upcoming NDCs, due by February next year, are expected to transform the goals from last year's COP28 into actionable plans, particularly in the energy sector. Experts call for commitments to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Crucially, countries must also transition away from fossil fuels, with a key requirement being a halt to new oil, gas, and coal projects.
Natalie Jones from the International Institute for Sustainable Development stressed the importance of fossil fuel reduction: "Continuing the expansion of fossil fuels while claiming climate leadership is indefensible." The Troika countries, however, are planning to increase oil and gas production by 33% by 2035, according to Oil Change International.
Brazil's President Lula da Silva aims to make the country the world's fourth-largest oil producer, contradicting his climate promises. Similarly, Azerbaijan's climate goals were labeled "critically insufficient" by Climate Action Tracker (CAT), which also criticized its plans for expanding fossil fuel production by 30% in the next decade.
Beyond Energy: A Comprehensive Approach Needed
Energy is just one aspect of the fight against climate change. Agriculture, industry, transport, and food production also contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. Experts argue that establishing clear targets for these sectors will guide policy decisions and attract investment.
A robust consultation and engagement process with all sectors is essential for implementing NDCs on the ground, noted Meyer. Sector-specific roadmaps and policies are crucial for ensuring the private sector supports climate action, added Mike Hemsley from the Energy Transitions Commission.
Avoiding "Creative Accounting"
Civil society groups warn against relying on "creative accounting" to meet NDC targets. For instance, countries that overestimate carbon absorption from forests run the risk of undermining genuine emissions reductions, especially in cases where natural disasters like wildfires release stored carbon back into the atmosphere.
Australia has been accused by CAT of creating an "illusion of progress" by revising its carbon sink estimates upwards, thereby allowing more space for fossil fuel emissions. Meyer expressed skepticism about whether nations will meet their promised ambition levels, urging COP30's host, Brazil, to lead efforts in closing the gap between climate pledges and actions.
"We need to see these NDCs as a floor, not a ceiling, and push for greater ambition," Meyer concluded.