Azerbaijan's president has praised fossil fuels as a "gift from God," offering little in the way of transition plans. However, several other governments have been stepping up, actively or behind the scenes, to drive forward proposals that support renewable energy. Here's what COP29 must address:
End Fossil Fuel Expansion
With current UN climate plans (NDCs) projecting 2.6–2.8°C of warming, action from wealthier countries is critical to meeting the 1.5°C target and avoiding worsening climate disasters. Science is clear: NDCs must commit to ending new oil, gas, and coal projects. The International Energy Agency estimates a 55% reduction in fossil fuel production by 2035 is needed to align with 1.5°C.
Notably, five wealthy countries—the U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway, and the UK—are responsible for over half of planned oil and gas expansion. COP28, COP29, and COP30 (UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil) must align with climate ambitions, despite research indicating that these countries collectively plan a 33% increase in oil and gas production by 2035. They should follow examples like Colombia, which has stopped new oil and gas exploration in favor of long-term climate action.
New Climate Finance Goals
For an equitable renewable energy transition, COP29 must establish ambitious, grant-based post-2025 climate finance goals for emissions reduction, adaptation, and loss and damage. Reform is needed on fossil fuel subsidies, transparency, debt, and policy. Success at COP29 hinges on securing trillions annually in grants, rather than loans.
Global South nations face severe debt and inequality crises, which hinder climate efforts. Support for adaptation and mitigation is vital and should not come in the form of debt. One funding source could be the removal of fossil fuel subsidies and increased accountability for major polluters.
Cover Decision
Each COP summit typically produces a headline statement, or "cover decision," which signals key commitments. Azerbaijan has not shown signs of preparing one but must do so to solidify progress. A COP29 cover decision should reaffirm COP28 outcomes, require updated NDCs that halt fossil fuel expansion, and establish equitable phase-out dates for fossil fuel production and use.
Current NDCs fall short of the 1.5°C goal, and the cover decision should allow COP30 to call for further revisions if collective NDCs remain misaligned with Paris Agreement targets.
Global Clean Power Alliance
COP29 will see the launch of the Global Clean Power Alliance, led by the UK and partners, to better coordinate fragmented energy transition efforts. While this initiative alone can't fully bridge the financing gap, it could add value if it mobilizes resources, coordinates effectively, and enables Global South nations to take leadership roles.
For the Alliance to truly support the energy transition, it must focus on scaling renewables and phase out fossil fuels without reproducing extractive industry issues.
Institutionalizing the Energy Transition
While COP28's decision on energy was a significant step, the UN climate process lacks a dedicated mechanism to track and implement the energy transition. COP29 should aim to make the "Mitigation Work Programme" a productive space for energy transition discussions, despite challenges from countries like Saudi Arabia that have resisted substantive outcomes.
Similarly, wealthy nations have weakened the "Just Transition Work Programme" by excluding international considerations and avoiding responsibility for historical emissions. Brazil has proposed transforming the Mitigation Work Programme from a negotiation forum to an implementation-focused body centered on energy transition, but it will need to defend this vision against expected opposition.
Real Climate Leadership
True climate leadership involves confronting fossil fuel dependence and investing in the energy transition. Last year marked a positive shift in the UN climate process, and COP29 provides an opportunity to advance and institutionalize the energy transition in multilateral discussions.