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Extreme Heat Could Kill Millions in Europe Without Urgent Action

A new study warns that climate change could cause up to 2.3 million additional deaths in European cities by the end of the century if countries fail to take urgent action. The research, published in Nature Medicine, finds that extreme heat will soon overtake cold temperatures as the leading cause of temperature-related mortality, particularly in southern European countries.

Heat-Related Deaths Set to Skyrocket

The study, conducted by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, analyzed temperature and mortality data from 854 urban areas across 30 European countries. Using climate models, they projected how temperature-related deaths could change between 2015 and 2099 under different warming scenarios.

Currently, cold-related deaths outnumber heat-related deaths by a ratio of 10 to 1. However, as global temperatures rise, this trend is expected to reverse, with heat-related fatalities becoming more common. Mediterranean countries, including Spain, France, Italy, and Malta, are predicted to suffer the worst effects.

Even in the most optimistic scenarios, where global temperatures are limited to a 1.5°C rise, the study predicts a significant increase in heat-related mortality. In worst-case scenarios, where temperatures increase by 4°C, the number of deaths caused by extreme heat will surge dramatically.

The Need for Massive Adaptation

The researchers also examined the impact of adaptation measures, such as:
✅ Expanding green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect
✅ Improving urban shading to protect people from direct sun exposure
✅ Widespread air conditioning to keep indoor temperatures safe

Their findings suggest that current adaptation measures are not enough to offset the risks of rising temperatures.

"We would need a massive adaptation in order to compensate for the increase in temperature," says study co-author Pierre Masselot. "At the moment, it's difficult to see how that level of adaptation could be reached."

The study modeled three adaptation scenarios, reducing heat-related deaths by 10%, 50%, and 90%. Only the most extreme adaptation efforts—those reducing deaths by 90%—could prevent large-scale mortality in European cities. However, implementing such measures on a massive scale across 30 countries remains a major challenge.

Rapid Warming Poses an Immediate Threat

Heatwaves across Europe have already claimed tens of thousands of lives in recent years. In 2022, a record-breaking heatwave killed over 61,000 people in Europe, according to previous research.

As climate change accelerates, these events are expected to become more frequent, longer, and more intense, further increasing mortality rates.

"If warming reaches 3°C or more, we will see an unprecedented rise in deaths," warns Masselot. "Countries need to act fast to improve climate resilience."

Mediterranean Countries Most at Risk

Southern Europe is expected to be the hardest hit region, with Spain, France, Italy, and Malta facing the highest death rates. The Mediterranean climate—characterized by hot, dry summers—will become even more extreme, pushing temperatures beyond human tolerance thresholds.

In contrast, northern Europe, including Scandinavia and parts of the UK, could see a slight decline in cold-related deaths, partially offsetting some of the damage caused by heatwaves. However, overall temperature-related mortality is expected to rise by nearly 50% across Europe.

Policy Action Needed to Prevent Mass Fatalities

The study highlights the urgent need for climate adaptation policies to prevent catastrophic loss of life. Governments must:

  • Accelerate the transition to renewable energy to slow temperature rises
  • Redesign urban areas to include more greenery and heat-resistant infrastructure
  • Invest in early warning systems to protect vulnerable populations
  • Mandate air conditioning and cooling solutions in homes, schools, and workplaces
  • Improve public health responses to heatwaves, including hydration campaigns and medical preparedness

The Window for Action is Closing

With global temperatures already 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, the world is on a trajectory toward dangerous warming. If governments fail to take immediate and aggressive action, millions of lives could be at risk in the coming decades.

As climate models predict worsening heatwaves, experts warn that the time for complacency is over. Without urgent policy shifts and large-scale adaptation, Europe could face one of the deadliest climate crises in modern history.