The US move, announced last week, would remove around a fifth of IRENA's core budget. Speaking at the agency's 16th Assembly in Abu Dhabi, Director-General Francesco La Camera said Washington had not yet formally notified the organisation of its intention to leave, a step required before the withdrawal can legally take effect.
Under IRENA's rules, a member state remains fully part of the organisation – with voting rights and financial obligations – until the end of the year in which formal notice is submitted.
Budget documents adopted by IRENA's nearly 170 member countries show that the US is expected to contribute around 22% of the agency's core funding for 2026, equivalent to roughly $5.7 million.
La Camera said discussions were already under way with governments and private-sector partners to cover any potential shortfall, noting that similar funding gaps have been managed in the past by other international climate institutions.
"We are exploring different options, including support from traditional donors and contributions from companies involved in our initiatives," he said. "One way or another, the agency will continue to operate."
Although some observers had expected China to step in to offset the potential loss, no such commitment emerged during the closed-door country statements at the assembly. European countries and the United Arab Emirates remain among IRENA's largest contributors, but the agency's core budget has seen little growth since 2018, constraining its ability to meet rising demand for technical support from developing nations and small island states.
La Camera said the organisation's governing council may need to revisit and adjust the approved 2026-2027 budget later this year if US funding does not materialise.
Melford Nicholas, minister of information technologies, utilities and energy for Antigua and Barbuda and a newly elected vice-president of IRENA, said the US withdrawal would not be insignificant, but added that European partners had signalled a willingness to help bridge the gap.
Energy transition driven by security and economics
Despite the uncertainty over funding, the dominant message from ministers and senior officials at the assembly was that the global energy transition is being propelled by economic and strategic realities, not just climate commitments.
Selwin Hart, special adviser to the UN Secretary-General on climate action and just transition, said countries are moving toward renewable energy "out of opportunity and necessity", pointing out that most of the world's population lives in states that depend on imported fossil fuels.
Such dependence, he said, exposes economies to price volatility, geopolitical shocks and balance-of-payments pressures, as illustrated by the surge in European gas prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"The transition is being driven by competitiveness, by energy security and by national interest," Hart said. "These are now the core motivations, alongside climate concerns."
In a video address, Annalena Baerbock, president of the UN General Assembly, said that while the geopolitical environment is increasingly difficult, the shift to clean energy has gained irreversible momentum.
Global renewable capacity has now exceeded 4,400 gigawatts, nearly thirty times higher than when the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, she noted. Investment in the energy transition reached a record $2.4 trillion in 2024.
"There is no return to the old system," she said. "The direction of travel is clear."
Both Hart and Baerbock stressed, however, that Africa continues to receive a disproportionately small share of clean-energy investment, accounting for only around 2% of global flows, despite vast potential and rapidly growing energy demand.
Pressing needs of small island states
The challenges facing small island developing states featured prominently in the discussions, particularly their dependence on expensive diesel fuel and their vulnerability to intensifying storms.
Nicholas highlighted the difficulty of insuring renewable energy infrastructure in regions increasingly exposed to cyclones. He recalled how a solar plant on Barbuda was destroyed by Hurricane Irma in 2017 while uninsured, and had to be rebuilt with international assistance.
Access to concessional finance, he said, is becoming more uncertain in the current global economic climate, slowing the pace of the energy transition. As a result, Antigua and Barbuda is now aiming for around 60% renewable electricity by 2030, rather than full decarbonisation.
Nevertheless, several Caribbean nations showcased progress, including plans for geothermal power in countries such as Dominica and St Kitts and Nevis, which could sharply reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels.
Looking ahead
La Camera said the world is close to meeting a global target of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, but remains off track on a parallel goal of doubling energy efficiency.
To accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels, he said IRENA is working with upcoming UN climate summit hosts on a roadmap to be presented at COP31 in Türkiye later this year, alongside potential targets for electrification aligned with long-term decarbonisation pathways.
Despite the US decision to step back, the message from the assembly was clear: political winds may shift, but the structural drivers of the energy transition – cost, security and competitiveness – are increasingly locking the global economy onto a low-carbon path.