Governments Urged to Create 'Positive Tipping Points' Through Climate Mandates
A new report suggests that setting clear mandates for key industries to transition to clean energy could trigger beneficial "positive tipping points," accelerating the global shift away from fossil fuels. While the term "tipping point" is often associated with dire environmental consequences—such as melting permafrost or the collapse of ocean currents—researchers argue that it can have a positive connotation when applied to climate policy.
The study, conducted by the Global Systems Institute (GSI) at the University of Exeter, proposes that regulatory mandates with specific timelines could push certain sectors toward adopting clean technologies. These mandates would not only phase out the most polluting fuels but also initiate ripple effects, encouraging other industries to follow suit. This, in turn, could significantly reduce the costs of clean energy for consumers and accelerate the low-carbon transition.
Experts emphasize that these interventions are crucial, as global carbon emissions need to be halved by 2030 to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5°C—a key threshold to avoid catastrophic climate impacts. However, emissions are still increasing, making it urgent for governments to take stronger action.
According to Professor Tim Lenton from GSI, triggering positive tipping points is now the only feasible way to stay on course with the Paris Agreement's goals. He points out that such policies could drive down both carbon emissions and costs, benefiting consumers and businesses alike, especially those most vulnerable to climate change.
The research evaluated different government interventions, such as taxation, subsidies, and regulatory mandates, across more than 70 countries. The findings revealed that mandates—policies requiring industries to adopt clean technologies by specific dates—were the most effective in promoting decarbonization, particularly in energy, heating, and transportation sectors.
Four key mandates were recommended:
- Phasing out coal power by 2035 in developed nations and by 2045 in developing countries.
- Increasing the share of heat pumps in heating appliance sales starting in 2025, with the goal of reaching 100% by 2035.
- Mandating that 100% of car sales be zero-emission vehicles by 2035.
- Requiring 100% of truck sales to be zero-emission by 2040.
Simon Sharpe, one of the report's co-authors, highlighted that progress in any one of these areas would accelerate transitions in the others. For example, increasing clean electricity use in one sector can drive down technology costs, making it easier for other industries to adopt similar solutions. Furthermore, as heating and transport systems become more electrified, they will help stabilize energy grids and lower the cost of clean power.
The report also identifies "super-leverage points"—policies with the greatest potential to spark widespread positive change. Among them, the zero-emission vehicle mandate stood out as having the strongest impact across multiple sectors, while coal phase-out could bring forward tipping points in heating and heavy transport by several years.
As the UK prepares to close its last coal-fired power plant this month, becoming the first G7 country to do so, the call for global action intensifies. Professor Lenton concludes that rapid implementation of mandates is crucial, warning that the failure to act will result in high human and economic costs.