Mexico's New President Pledges to Revive Fight Against Climate Change

In her early days as Mexico's first woman president, Claudia Sheinbaum vowed to shift away from the fossil fuel-heavy policies of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. She emphasized her commitment to renewable energy and promised to restart the energy transition he had stalled.

"We are going to accelerate renewable energy growth. The goal is for renewables to account for 45% of total electricity production by 2030," Sheinbaum declared during her first public speech at Mexico City's Zócalo square. This marked a clear break from López Obrador's pro-fossil fuel policies, including his investment of over $20 billion in a new oil refinery and the suspension of solar and wind energy auctions.

Sheinbaum plans to unveil an "ambitious energy transition program" in the coming days aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, she also pledged to strengthen Pemex, Mexico's state-owned oil company, and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), which operates many fossil fuel power plants.

Although specifics of her plan are yet to be detailed, experts note the significance of her shift in rhetoric. "The terms ‘sustainability' or ‘renewable energy' never appeared in López Obrador's policies," said Rosanety Barrios, a former official at Mexico's Energy Regulatory Commission, adding that Sheinbaum frequently uses such terms.

During her campaign, Sheinbaum highlighted the need for renewable energy to meet rising electricity demand, partly driven by the increasing impact of climate change. In a speech to Congress, where López Obrador was present, her promises took on a more concrete form. She set a goal of achieving 45% clean electricity by 2030, a significant leap from the 24% recorded last year. Achieving this would put Mexico back on track to meet the Paris Agreement's targets of limiting global warming to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

López Obrador's energy policies had led Climate Action Tracker to downgrade Mexico's compliance with the Paris Agreement to "critically insufficient." Sheinbaum also announced a cap on oil production at 1.8 million barrels per day, a far cry from the 2.6 million barrels López Obrador initially promised and well below the 3 million barrels envisioned by previous reforms.

While Sheinbaum criticized the feasibility of those ambitious oil production goals, she has refrained from condemning the Dos Bocas refinery project and has visited it multiple times alongside López Obrador. Experts say that Mexico is unlikely to increase oil production, as its existing fields are nearing depletion. "Mexico has around ten years of oil left at its current production levels," said Adrian Fernandez, director of the Mexico Climate Initiative. Despite this, Fernandez praised Sheinbaum for her stance, noting that she is unlikely to push for increased oil output.

To increase production, Mexico would need to invest heavily in fracking or deepwater drilling, both of which it has previously rejected. Fernandez added that Sheinbaum's background as an energy engineer and former UN climate expert aligns with her focus on renewable energy.

In her first week as president, Sheinbaum faced a stark reminder of the climate crisis during a visit to Acapulco, which was devastated by Hurricane John. This storm, like last year's Hurricane Otis, was intensified by rising ocean temperatures linked to global warming.

However, it remains unclear whether Sheinbaum will be able to achieve her climate goals under Mexico's current legal framework. López Obrador's constitutional reform favors the state-owned CFE, which controls 54% of electricity generation. While Sheinbaum has supported this state control, she has also promised to encourage private investment in renewables, something the previous administration had discouraged. "The biggest challenge Sheinbaum faces is legal uncertainty," said Barrios.