NOAA Maintains Forecast for Highly Active 2024 Hurricane Season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its midseason update on Thursday, affirming expectations for an extraordinarily active 2024 hurricane season. The federal agency slightly adjusted its initial forecast from May, now predicting 17 to 24 named storms, down from the previous estimate of 17 to 25. Despite this minor revision, the 2024 season is still expected to be one of the most active since NOAA began issuing forecasts in 1998.
The updated forecast also includes predictions for eight to 13 hurricanes, with four to seven of those potentially reaching major hurricane status (Category 3, 4, or 5), characterized by winds of at least 111 miles per hour. These figures account for the four named storms that have already developed this season, including Hurricane Debby, which made landfall in Florida as a Category 1 storm earlier this week. Debby has since weakened, but its remnants continue to pose flood risks in the Carolinas and tornado threats in the Northeast.
An average hurricane season typically features 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. NOAA generally issues an updated forecast in August, at the peak of the hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30.
David Zierden, Florida's state climatologist at the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University, expressed concern over the potential strength of storms this year. "All the indicators for a very active season are in place, which is quite worrying," he said. "The main concern is that any storm that forms could be more intense this year."
NOAA's forecast is based on several key factors, including unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, which can fuel hurricane formation. Additionally, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced West African monsoon are contributing to the heightened activity. The transition to La Niña conditions, known to enhance hurricane activity, was also anticipated.
These conditions are expected to persist into the fall, with NOAA predicting that the dry Saharan air, which had previously inhibited tropical storm development, would likely diminish by August. The agency reported a 10% chance of a near-normal season and virtually no chance of a below-normal season. It's important to note that NOAA's forecast focuses on overall seasonal activity and does not predict specific landfalls, which are influenced by short-term weather patterns.
The 2024 hurricane season started with a bang in July when Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin. Beryl caused widespread devastation across several Caribbean islands before weakening and making landfall near Matagorda, Texas, as a Category 1 storm.
NOAA's midseason update aligns with a forecast from Colorado State University, which also predicts a highly active season with 23 named storms, including 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. This prediction ties the record for the most hurricanes forecasted by the Colorado State team in an August outlook.