Nonstop Heat: NOAA Predicts 2024 Could Be the Hottest Year on Record

After experiencing a 14th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures in July, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts that 2024 might end up as the hottest year ever recorded, or at least very close.

In its monthly climate briefing, NOAA projected a 77% chance that this year will be the warmest on record, with nearly a certainty that it will rank among the top five hottest years. Karin Gleason, a monitoring section chief at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, reported that nearly 20% of the Earth's landmass experienced record temperatures in July.

"The globe remains extraordinarily warm," Gleason noted, though she mentioned that last month's global temperatures were nearly identical to those of July 2023. Europe, Africa, and Asia all experienced their hottest July on record, while North America had its second warmest July.

July also saw the Earth's two hottest days on record back-to-back. During this period, much of the Southwest U.S. endured intense heat warnings, and the Park Fire, fueled by triple-digit temperatures, became the fourth largest wildfire in California's history.

NOAA predicts above-average temperatures for most of the continental U.S. in September, except for certain areas along the California coast and the Pacific Northwest. Researchers have attributed these extreme temperatures primarily to fossil fuel emissions, a trend expected to persist until greenhouse gas emissions are controlled. The recent heatwave has been exacerbated by the El Niño climate pattern, although its influence is waning and may soon be replaced by La Niña.

Brad Pugh, a meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, stated there is a two-thirds chance that La Niña will develop in September, October, and November. La Niña typically brings cooler global temperatures but can also intensify Atlantic hurricanes, adding to concerns during a particularly active hurricane season. It is also associated with wetter winters in the Pacific Northwest and drier conditions in the Southwest, potentially leading to a resurgence of drought in the latter region.

European scientists, monitoring global temperatures through the Copernicus program, reported that July was the second-hottest on record. Gleason noted that U.S. and European data are in agreement, with this July being almost as warm as 2023.

"The primary global datasets are all consistent," Gleason said. "The differences in results come from how data is combined and analyzed. The key takeaway is that we are at or near record levels of warmth."

However, one notable exception to the hot streak has been sea surface temperatures. After 15 months of record-high sea surface temperatures that puzzled scientists, these levels have now eased, according to NOAA. Data from the University of Maine's Climate Reanalyzer still shows sea surface temperatures about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit above average, which remains high but is lower than the records set in 2023.