Nonstop Heat: NOAA Predicts 2024 May Be the Hottest Year on Record

July marked the 14th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Following this unprecedented streak, NOAA predicts that 2024 is likely to become the hottest year on record or at least very close.

In its monthly climate briefing, NOAA revealed a 77% chance that 2024 will set a new record for global heat, with nearly a 100% chance it will rank among the top five hottest years. Karin Gleason, a monitoring section chief at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, reported that nearly 20% of the world's landmass experienced record-high temperatures in July.

"The globe remains incredibly warm," Gleason noted, adding that global temperatures in July were nearly identical to those of July 2023. Europe, Africa, and Asia each recorded their warmest July on record, while North America experienced its second-warmest.

During this period, the Earth experienced its two hottest days on record consecutively in July. The intense heat triggered widespread warnings in the Southwest U.S. and fueled the Park Fire in central California, which became the fourth-largest wildfire in the state's history.

NOAA anticipates above-average temperatures for nearly all of the continental U.S. in September, with the exception of parts of the California coast and the Pacific Northwest. Researchers attribute the extraordinary temperatures primarily to the burning of fossil fuels, which is expected to sustain the warming trend until significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are achieved. Additionally, the recent El Niño climate pattern has contributed to the spike in temperatures.

Although the influence of El Niño is diminishing, NOAA meteorologist Brad Pugh stated there is a two-thirds chance that La Niña, a cooler climate pattern, could develop between September and November. La Niña typically brings cooler global temperatures but can also intensify Atlantic hurricanes, raising concerns during an already active tropical storm season. It is also associated with wet winters in the Pacific Northwest and dry conditions in the Southwest, potentially exacerbating droughts.

European scientists, using data from the Copernicus program, also monitor global temperatures through real-world observations and computer models. According to Copernicus, July 2024 was the second-hottest July on record.

Gleason emphasized that U.S. and European scientists are aligned in their findings, with July 2024 nearly tying with 2023 in terms of heat. "The primary global data sets are all consistent," she said. "Differences in data types and methodologies may lead to slight variations in the exact figures, but the overall trend is clear—we are at or near record heat levels."

One notable change is that, after 15 months of record-high sea surface temperatures, those levels have finally begun to ease, according to NOAA. However, data from the University of Maine's Climate Reanalyzer still shows sea surface temperatures trending about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit above average, which, while below the 2023 records, remains significantly high.