Southeast Asia is at risk of deepening its dependence on fossil fuels as it attempts to satisfy surging electricity demand, an environmental think tank has warned. The 10 nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) fulfilled the region's 3.6 percent increase in electricity demand last year solely through fossil fuels, as reported by the UK-based think tank Ember.
Meanwhile, ASEAN's share of energy generated from renewables dropped to 26 percent from 28 percent in 2022, attributed to a decline in hydropower production due to droughts and other extreme events. Carbon emissions rose by 6.6 percent last year, resulting in an additional 44 million tonnes of CO2 in the atmosphere.
The report identified Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines as top coal polluters, while Singapore and Thailand's emissions primarily originated from natural gas. Ember indicated that the region's slow energy transition prevents it from reaping the benefits of renewables, including the decreasing costs of solar and wind power, which are now cheaper than fossil fuels.
"Continuing at this pace of transition risks ASEAN becoming more dependent on fossil fuels, missing opportunities presented by emerging clean energy technologies and economics, and failing to meet climate targets," the think tank stated. "Meanwhile, electricity demand continues to grow rapidly, making it more important than ever to meet this demand with clean energy."
Ember highlighted solar power and wind power as two of the most promising long-term solutions, given that hydropower is facing increasing reliability issues due to droughts and changing rainfall patterns.
This report coincides with the International Energy Agency's (IEA) warning that Southeast Asia will need to invest $190 billion—five times its current investment rate—to achieve its climate goals by 2035. Even with clean energy sources projected to meet over one-third of the energy demand growth, the region remains on track to increase carbon emissions by 35 percent between now and 2050, as noted in the IEA's report.
Electricity demand in Southeast Asia is expected to grow at an annual rate of 4 percent, according to the IEA.
"Clean energy technologies are not expanding quickly enough, and the continued heavy reliance on fossil fuel imports is leaving countries highly exposed to future risks," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
Courtney Weatherby, the deputy director of the Stimson Center's Southeast Asia program, commented that while renewables like solar power hold great potential, numerous institutional roadblocks remain. Many ASEAN countries are trying to modernize and expand their energy generation capacity simultaneously, resulting in conflicting priorities, Weatherby explained. Additionally, renewables face challenges such as storage, grid management, and the inability to generate power on demand during peak hours.
"Most countries in ASEAN are starting from a relatively low point in solar and wind deployment, meaning even rapid expansion won't lead to a full transition in a timely manner," Weatherby told Al Jazeera. "More importantly, the mandate for power utilities is to ensure a stable and reliable power supply to provide consumers access and support ongoing economic development through attracting investment, often in manufacturing," she added.