Swing States Gain Big from Democrats' Climate Bill, But Political Payoff Remains Unclear
A new analysis shows that seven key swing states, which will be crucial in the upcoming U.S. election, have received nearly half of the clean energy manufacturing investments made possible by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a 2022 climate bill championed by President Joe Biden. Despite the influx of funds, Democrats are struggling to translate these investments into political support.
The IRA has directed $63 billion of its $150 billion in clean energy investments to Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. These states, which are critical battlegrounds in the 2024 election, have seen more than 50,000 new jobs in clean energy manufacturing, particularly in electric vehicles, batteries, and renewable energy components.
Economic and Environmental Impact
The IRA, hailed as the "most significant climate law in the history of mankind" by Biden, is reshaping the U.S. economy. It has spurred nearly half a trillion dollars in public and private investment, created over 300,000 new jobs, and driven U.S. clean energy investments to account for more than half of the country's private investment growth. According to Goldman Sachs, the bill could result in $3 trillion in clean energy spending, with the U.S. Treasury estimating $5 trillion in global economic benefits by 2050 due to reduced carbon emissions.
Despite these economic gains, many voters remain unaware of the IRA's impact. Polls show that only 40% of Americans know about the bill, and fewer understand its potential benefits. This communication gap has hindered Democrats' ability to leverage the IRA's success for electoral gain.
Political Challenges and Missed Opportunities
Democrats face significant challenges in turning these clean energy investments into political capital. Kamala Harris, who cast the tie-breaking vote to pass the IRA, rarely mentions the bill on the campaign trail, while Donald Trump dismisses it as a "green scam" and promises to repeal it. Swing states remain divided, with voters either unaware of the IRA or skeptical of its benefits.
Experts like Anthony Leiserowitz of Yale University highlight the failure of Democrats to communicate the IRA's achievements effectively. Even among liberal Democrats, only 49% are aware of the bill, and many view it through the lens of partisan media, with Fox News framing it negatively.
While some voters, like Nadine Luci from Pennsylvania, express support for the IRA when informed about its details, this lack of awareness is a missed opportunity. Leiserowitz's polling shows that when voters are provided with information about the bill, an overwhelming 75% support it.
Economic Benefits in Republican Strongholds
Ironically, much of the IRA's economic benefits have flowed to rural and exurban areas, which traditionally vote Republican. In places like Weirton, West Virginia, and rural Georgia, new clean energy factories are being built, creating jobs in areas that have long struggled with economic decline. However, many residents remain unconvinced, with some skeptical of Bidenomics and the Inflation Reduction Act.
As the 2024 election approaches, Harris and the Democrats will need to better communicate the IRA's successes to key demographic groups, including young people, people of color, and suburban women, if they hope to win the swing states that have benefitted most from the landmark climate bill.