The IPCC Must Deliver Its Key Report Ahead of the Next UN Global Stocktake
An IPCC author from the Global South emphasizes the importance of aligning the IPCC report timeline with the upcoming UN global stocktake to uphold the integrity of international climate cooperation.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) must complete its seventh Assessment Report in time for the second Global Stocktake (GST). The IPCC report is essential for assessing climate change science and guiding government decisions, especially within the framework of multilateral negotiations.
The GST, a crucial component of the Paris Agreement, evaluates global progress towards long-term climate goals and must be conducted "in the light of equity and the best available science." Therefore, IPCC assessments are vital inputs for the GST.
As an IPCC author from the Global South, I stress that synchronizing the IPCC cycle with GST timelines is vital for maintaining the integrity of international climate cooperation. Efforts to include developing country voices should be prioritized over delays that could render the IPCC report irrelevant for the 2028 GST.
Concerns About Expediting the Process
Arguments for delaying the IPCC report production by the three working groups—covering physical science, impacts and adaptation, and mitigation—are primarily based on three concerns.
First, proponents of a delay argue that rushing the process might hinder the representation of underrepresented communities, particularly from the Global South and non-English speakers. This could diminish the diversity of perspectives necessary for a thorough assessment.
Second, they claim that the report might cover fewer topics, which would limit its scope in addressing the complex nature of climate change.
Lastly, delays could disrupt the integration of key messages from the different working groups. Timely integration is essential for a cohesive and comprehensive assessment.
Measures for Inclusion
The IPCC's role is to provide credible scientific assessments to the UNFCCC process and national decision-makers. While time constraints may necessitate some compromises, it is better to minimize these than to forgo IPCC input entirely. To maintain its relevance and impact on global climate policy-making, the IPCC must ensure its assessments are available for the second GST.
Ensuring the inclusion of underrepresented communities is more about proactive efforts than merely extending timelines. Building networks for scholars from the Global South, facilitating special issues in academic journals, and organizing regional meetings can enhance representation. Focused efforts in the next IPCC cycle are more effective than strictly adhering to traditional timelines.
My experience as an IPCC author from the Global South shows that inclusion results from deliberate initiatives rather than extended deadlines. Successive IPCC cycles have increasingly included literature from developing regions and better represented Global South perspectives. For instance, the AR6 emphasized equity, impacts on vulnerable communities, and development pathways relevant to developing countries.
Without IPCC input, the GST may lack critical Southern perspectives. The IPCC has been moving towards greater consideration of underrepresented regions, countries, and research communities. Excluding IPCC input would mean losing an important source of Southern perspectives.
No Risk to Quality
Accelerating the IPCC cycle by a few months does not compromise the report's robustness. Previous assessments have been completed within five to six years, and with urgency, the rafting and expert reviews can be slightly expedited.
Government reviews are crucial to the science-policy interface. Completing a single working group report typically takes around four years from the call for experts. Given the urgency of the climate crisis, it is feasible to shorten the process by a few months without compromising quality.
Concerns about topic range and integration can be addressed through proper planning and coordinated efforts across working groups. Flexibility in the assessment report process is preferable to making the IPCC policy irrelevant. With appropriate planning, a high degree of integration can be achieved, even if not perfect.
Designing the IPCC cycle to ensure input to the GST is crucial for international cooperation—providing scientific assessments to inform political decisions. Addressing concerns about the underrepresentation of developing country voices through enhanced efforts within the IPCC, rather than delays, is essential. Timely IPCC input to the second GST is necessary for effective global climate action and to ensure the voices of developing countries are adequately represented.