In 2015, governments committed to the Paris Agreement, aiming to limit warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) to avoid severe climate impacts. "We're teetering on a planetary tightrope," said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday. "Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster."

With current commitments, temperatures are still expected to rise between 2.6°C (4.7°F) and 2.8°C (5°F) by 2100, consistent with recent years' findings. "If we look at progress toward 2030 targets, especially among G20 nations…they have not advanced significantly toward their 2030 climate goals," said Anne Olhoff, the report's chief scientific editor.

The world has already warmed by roughly 1.3°C (2.3°F). Next month, nations will gather for the UN climate summit (COP29) in Azerbaijan to advance last year's agreement to shift from fossil fuels. These discussions in Baku will shape each country's updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for February 2025. The report recommends a collective 42% cut in global emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035 to maintain a chance of keeping warming below 1.5°C — a goal increasingly seen as out of reach. Inger Andersen, executive director of the UN Environment Programme, urged countries to use the Baku talks to bolster their NDCs. "Every fraction of a degree avoided counts," she emphasized.