Search

Search

The UN warns that current climate policies could lead to a 3.1°C rise in Earth's temperature, with G20 nations falling behind.

Global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.3% between 2022 and 2023, reaching a record 57.1 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent, according to a UN report. Current climate policies are set to result in global warming of over 3°C (5.4°F) by century’s end, more than double the 1.5°C goal established nearly a decade ago. The annual Emissions Gap Report compares current commitments against necessary actions, projecting a temperature increase of up to 3.1°C (5.6°F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100 unless governments accelerate emissions cuts.

Since 2015, countries have aimed to limit warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) through the Paris Agreement, a cap intended to prevent severe impacts. "We're teetering on a planetary tightrope," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, urging leaders to close the emissions gap to avoid a climate catastrophe.

Despite existing pledges, warming would still range between 2.6°C (4.7°F) and 2.8°C (5°F) by 2100, in line with recent years' projections. Anne Olhoff, the report's chief scientific editor, noted that G20 nations, in particular, have made limited progress toward 2030 climate goals. The world has already warmed by about 1.3°C (2.3°F).

Next month, nations will meet at the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan to build on last year's fossil fuel transition agreement. Talks in Baku are expected to inform each nation's updated emissions reduction targets, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), due by February 2025. The report calls for countries to collectively commit to a 42% cut in annual emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035 to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. Inger Andersen, head of the UN Environment Programme, urged stronger NDCs, emphasizing that "every fraction of a degree avoided counts."