In a rare public intervention, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC) said the bloc must stick to reducing its domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 90–95% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels — a target the group insists is both achievable and strategically vital.
"A 90–95% domestic reduction by 2040 is not only feasible — it's in Europe's best interest," said Prof Jette Bredahl Jacobsen, vice-chair of the ESABCC. "The technologies exist. The benefits, in terms of energy security, competitiveness, and public health, are clear."
The call comes amid speculation that the European Commission may soften its climate trajectory, with reports suggesting it could allow carbon offsetting abroad to count toward the EU's 2040 target. Critics argue this would undercut the bloc's climate credibility and delay essential investments at home.
Commission under pressure
The EU has legally committed to climate neutrality by 2050 and is on course to cut emissions by 55% by 2030. But its 2040 target — designed as a stepping stone between those milestones — remains under political negotiation.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra previously backed a 90% cut. However, amid opposition from several member states, Hoekstra has postponed revisions to the European Climate Law until July, with signals that flexibility — including international credits — is back on the table.
Carbon credits allow countries to fund emissions reductions elsewhere while counting them toward their own climate targets. While proponents argue they offer a cost-effective route to global mitigation, critics say they undermine domestic ambition and often fail to deliver real climate benefits.
According to the ESABCC's new report, just 16% of issued credits to date have resulted in genuine emissions cuts.
"Using carbon credits shifts responsibility away from meaningful action at home," said Prof Laura Diaz Anadon, also vice-chair of the board. "It's a distraction from what Europe needs to do now — rapidly decarbonise and adapt."
A matter of fairness and resilience
The advisory board insists that high domestic ambition is not just scientifically sound, but ethically necessary. It strengthens Europe's position in global climate leadership and avoids the reputational and economic risks of outsourcing emissions cuts.
WWF's Michael Sicaud-Clyet was more direct: "International offsets are a waste of taxpayers' money. Why send funds abroad when we could be modernising our own industries?"
The scientists also warned that Europe's adaptation efforts are lagging behind, even as extreme weather accelerates. With global temperatures already 1.3–1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, the continent is seeing more frequent and severe floods, heatwaves and droughts.
"The EU must urgently develop a stronger adaptation policy — with clear goals, legal backing, and accountability," said Diaz Anadon. "The risks are growing faster than our response."
As the EU prepares to finalise its 2040 climate roadmap in the coming weeks, the board's message is clear: science shows the path is viable — what's needed now is political will.