China is outpacing the world in the installation of wind and solar power projects. As President-elect Donald Trump is expected to roll back the U.S.'s role as a global climate leader, experts predict China will take the lead in combating climate change. With the title of the world's largest emitter of carbon, China holds significant power to reduce global emissions.
China is the World's Biggest Polluter
China's emissions have increased nearly 50-fold over the past century, now accounting for 31.2% of global carbon pollution. It overtook the U.S. as the world's largest polluter in 2005. Despite record-high carbon emissions, there is hope: experts believe China's emissions growth is slowing, and some predict that China will soon see a peak and a decline in emissions.
However, with 2024 on track to be the hottest year on record, scientists warn that urgent action is needed to prevent the worst climate outcomes.
China Leads in Renewable Energy
China is a global powerhouse in renewable energy, generating nearly half of the world's solar and wind power. It is constructing two-thirds of the world's utility-scale solar and wind projects, amounting to nearly 339 gigawatts — enough to power over 250 million homes, nearly double the U.S. population. China's solar capacity is expanding so quickly that by the early 2030s, it will generate more solar power than the U.S. will consume.
China is also a major exporter of solar panels, primarily to Europe and Africa. In contrast, the U.S. has placed restrictions on Chinese solar imports, focusing on building its own domestic supply chain.
China's Electricity Generation: A Shift Toward Clean Energy
Wind and solar power now make up nearly 16% of China's electricity generation, growing from a negligible share just two decades ago. While coal remains a significant part of the energy mix, its share has dropped by over 17%. Still, China continues to build new coal plants, and questions remain about how much and how quickly they will phase out the oldest plants.
According to Global Energy Monitor, wind and solar are now capable of generating 37% of China's power, effectively displacing coal. The next challenge is whether China will accelerate the closure of older coal plants and further reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.
China's Climate Commitment
China's current climate commitment is to peak its emissions before 2030, with plans to reduce emissions by 30% by 2035. If China meets this target, it could prevent 4.7 gigatons of carbon from entering the atmosphere — the same amount the U.S. is projected to emit this year.
However, projections suggest that China's emissions may not fall fast enough to meet global climate goals, particularly the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. While China's emissions growth has slowed, a recent 1% decline in emissions has raised hope for future progress. Still, experts caution that this decrease may not represent a long-term trend.
A Turning Point in Global Emissions
Since 2015, China has been responsible for 90% of global emissions growth. If China's emissions plateau, as experts believe is likely, it would mark a significant turning point in the global effort to combat climate change. While a plateau in China's emissions would still fall short of global climate targets, it would represent an important milestone in the fight against climate change.