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UK Intelligence Chiefs Warn Climate Crisis Poses “Severe” National Security Threat

The UK’s national security faces growing danger from the climate crisis and the collapse of vital ecosystems, with food shortages, economic disruption, and political instability potentially just years away, a forthcoming report by the country’s intelligence chiefs is set to warn.

Originally scheduled for publication on Thursday at a landmark London event, the report has been delayed, with sources telling The Guardian that government reluctance may have halted its release.

The report, produced by the Joint Intelligence Committee, identifies the climate and nature crises as among the most significant threats to national security. Already, UK food supply chains are under pressure, with commodity prices rising. Defence experts warn these risks could escalate as the country remains heavily dependent on imported food.

Other industries are also vulnerable. Ecosystem collapse in areas such as the Amazon and extreme weather events globally are expected to disrupt trade and economic activity. Sources familiar with the report stressed that these risks are not distant; they are already being felt and will intensify if global temperatures rise beyond 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.

Food security is highlighted as the most immediate concern, particularly as imports come from regions increasingly exposed to climate-related disasters. The fashion and textiles sector is also affected, relying on materials sourced from high-risk areas.

The report also flags potential migration pressures from countries hardest hit by climate and biodiversity crises. Political instability abroad could lead to social unrest and government collapses, which in turn may impact UK security.

UK defence chiefs have sounded the alarm on climate risks for two decades, including at the UN Security Council in 2007. However, experts say little concrete action has been taken domestically to mitigate the national security implications of climate breakdown. Some are now calling for climate finance to be recognised as a component of national security spending.

The delay comes ahead of COP30 in Brazil, where Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to promote the UK's climate targets. Some advisers are reportedly urging him to remain in the UK amid political sensitivities at home, despite the summit underscoring the urgent need for global action to prevent temperatures from exceeding 1.5°C.

Sources described the report's findings as "a very stark warning," emphasising that climate-driven threats are growing in both urgency and scale.