Average summer temperatures are tracking at 16.13°C (61.03°F), well above the previous record of 15.76°C set in 2018. Unless the final days of August are unseasonably cold, meteorologists say the new benchmark is almost certain to be confirmed when the season ends on 31 August.

The finding would push the famously hot summer of 1976 out of the country's top five warmest summers since records began in 1884. It would also mean that all five of the UK's hottest summers have occurred since 2000.

"Provisional Met Office statistics show that summer 2025 will almost certainly be the warmest summer on record," said Met Office scientist Emily Carlisle. "Unless temperatures are around four degrees below average for the rest of August – which is not forecast – the current record will be exceeded."

Consistently hot, but not extreme

While the summer has been persistently warm, it has not seen temperatures reach the extremes of July 2022, when the UK recorded an all-time high of 40.3°C. The highest temperature this year was 35.8°C in Faversham, Kent, on 1 July.

However, the sustained warmth has had widespread impacts. Large parts of England have faced "nationally significant" water shortages, prompting hosepipe bans as reservoirs, rivers, and aquifers run dry. June and July were marked by long dry spells, with minimum night-time temperatures also remaining unusually high.

Climate drivers and marine heatwave

Meteorologists point to a combination of parched soils from spring, persistent high-pressure systems, and unusually warm seas around the UK as key drivers of this year's relentless heat. The Met Office added that climate change is intensifying these patterns, with the UK warming at a rate of around 0.25°C per decade.

This summer's marine heatwave, which saw sea temperatures around the British Isles climb to exceptional levels, has also been linked to the wider impact of climate change.

The Met Office will confirm the official status of the summer on 1 September, but for now, all signs indicate that 2025 will be remembered as the UK's hottest summer on record.