Internal staffing data seen by The Guardian reveals that 15 NWS field offices in hurricane-prone states—stretching from Texas to Florida—are short on meteorologists, with several operating with a third fewer forecasters than required. Key offices in Miami, Jacksonville, Houston, and Puerto Rico are among those severely affected.

Even the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Miami-based hub responsible for tracking Atlantic cyclones, is reportedly short of five hurricane specialists. This is despite official claims from the Trump administration that the agency is adequately staffed.

Cuts, freezes, and early retirements

The staffing crisis stems from deep cuts and a hiring freeze introduced during Trump's presidency, under an initiative labelled the "Department of Government Efficiency." Since 2017, more than 600 employees have left the NWS. Field offices have struggled to stay afloat by temporarily reassigning staff and rotating meteorologists, but the system is straining.

"The system is already overstretched—and at some point it will snap," warned Tom Fahy, legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, which supplied the staffing figures. "We are at the snapping point now."

In some locations, overnight coverage has been suspended due to lack of personnel. According to internal documents, seven of the 122 NWS stations, including the one in Jackson, Kentucky—where a tornado recently killed 19 people—will no longer operate 24/7.

‘Musical chairs' won't hold

Houston and Lake Charles, Louisiana, both of which have been hit hard by hurricanes in recent years, are now missing their lead meteorologists. The NWS is requesting relocations to fill those top roles, while dozens of other openings across Florida and Alabama also remain vacant.

"The National Weather Service is playing musical chairs, but that's not sustainable," said Brian LaMarre, a 30-year NWS veteran who recently retired from his post in Tampa. "We need proper funding, not stopgap fixes."

Even critical tools like weather balloons and radar maintenance have suffered from staffing losses. Some fear that hurricane reconnaissance flights—vital for forecasting—could be scaled back.

"The real concern is at the local level," said retired hurricane forecaster James Franklin. "Even if the NHC provides good guidance, understaffed offices might not have the capacity to relay that information quickly to emergency managers. That's where lives are at risk."

FEMA in turmoil

Meanwhile, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is also facing its own leadership and readiness crisis. The agency has slashed training for state-level responders and remains behind schedule on seasonal preparedness. Its new acting head, David Richardson—a former Marine with no emergency management experience—has reportedly taken a confrontational stance with staff.

"There's confusion among states over what support they can expect," said Michael Coen, former FEMA chief of staff under President Biden. "If FEMA is faced with concurrent disasters, it may not have the resources to respond properly."

Warnings go unheeded

Forecasters have predicted an above-average hurricane season, citing elevated sea surface temperatures in the Gulf—a climate change-linked factor that fuels stronger storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects up to 10 hurricanes this year, with as many as five reaching Category 3 strength or higher.

Yet NOAA itself faces a proposed 25% budget cut under the Trump administration's new federal budget plan, which would gut funding for climate and weather research.

"This is not a partisan issue," said Fahy. "Storms don't care if you live in a red state or a blue one. The Weather Service's entire annual budget is about the cost of a cup of coffee per person. That's an incredible value when lives are at stake."

A FEMA spokesperson insisted that all operations remain intact and that communities will receive timely assistance. "All readiness requirements will continue without interruption," the agency said in a statement.

But with hurricane season already underway and frontline forecasting teams overstretched, many experts warn that the cracks in the system may soon turn into fractures.