'We Should Have Better Answers by Now': Climate Scientists Confounded by Unexpected Pace of Global Warming

The surge in global temperatures over the past 13 months has outpaced expert forecasts, raising questions about whether this is just an anomaly or indicative of a more fundamental change in the climate system.

In a candid essay published in Nature this March, renowned climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, suggested that global warming might be advancing beyond scientists' current ability to predict. "The 2023 temperature anomaly has come out of the blue, revealing an unprecedented knowledge gap, possibly the first such gap in about 40 years," Schmidt wrote, referencing the period since satellite data began providing real-time insights into Earth's climate system.

Schmidt warned that if this anomaly didn't stabilize by August, it could imply that a warming planet is altering the climate system in ways scientists hadn't anticipated.

With August now upon us, Schmidt is somewhat less alarmed but still concerned. He notes that while broader global warming trends are starting to realign with predictions, the situation remains uncertain. "If we maintain this trend for the next few months, we might conclude that what happened in late 2023 was more of an anomaly than a systemic shift," he said. "I'm slightly less worried, but still humbled by our inability to fully explain it."

In an interview with The Guardian, Schmidt discussed how record-breaking heat in the latter half of 2023 and early 2024 left scientists perplexed. Some records were shattered by more than 0.2°C, an unprecedented deviation. "We don't have a quantitative explanation for even half of it. That is pretty humbling," Schmidt admitted.

While the underlying science of global warming remains robust—more than 99.9% of climate scientists agree that human activities like burning fossil fuels are driving the crisis—the recent surge in temperatures has left experts grappling for answers. This has led to growing concerns that crucial years for taking climate action may have been lost.

The worsening trend in global temperatures will persist until fossil fuel use is drastically reduced. "As climate change continues, each decade gets warmer, the impacts grow larger, and the consequences become more severe," Schmidt said. "In that sense, we are already in uncharted territory, and with every passing decade, we move further out on a limb."

Various factors have been suggested to explain the recent temperature spike, including the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption, increased solar activity, and pollution controls that have reduced cooling sulphur dioxide particles. However, Schmidt asserts that none of these factors sufficiently accounts for the scale of the temperature increase.

One of the most concerning theories is that Earth is losing its albedo—its ability to reflect heat back into space—due to decreasing ice cover in the Arctic, Antarctic, and mountain glaciers. On July 29, sea ice extent was at a record low for that date, nearly 4 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average, according to Zackary Labe, a climate scientist at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently warned that "Earth is becoming hotter and more dangerous for everyone, everywhere." He highlighted how extreme heat has led to deaths, closed tourist attractions, and shuttered schools across the globe.

Heatwaves, once rare, are now commonplace, with devastating consequences. The World Meteorological Organization noted that at least 10 countries reported temperatures above 50°C in the past year, including the U.S., Mexico, and China. The heat index in Iran, which accounts for both temperature and humidity, approached a staggering 60°C, far exceeding safe levels for humans.

The pace of climate change is unsettling. Schmidt estimates there's a 72% chance that 2024 will surpass 2023's heat record, a likelihood that will increase further without a cooling La Niña event by December.

As the world edges closer to the Paris Agreement's lower threshold of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, Schmidt stresses that the focus should be on reducing carbon emissions as swiftly as possible. "Every tenth of a degree of warming brings greater impacts. It doesn't matter where we are now; we need to reach net zero. The faster we do that, the better off we'll be," he emphasized.

Reflecting on his role as a scientist, Schmidt admitted that while he hopes his forecasts are accurate, as a human, he would rather they be overestimations. "We would all rather be wrong than right on this," he said. "That's something sceptics don't seem to understand."