Wealthy Western Nations Leading Global Oil and Gas Expansion Despite Climate Pledges

A dramatic increase in new oil and gas exploration in 2024 is poised to release nearly 12 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases, with affluent countries such as the US and the UK driving this expansion despite their climate commitments, new data shared exclusively with the Guardian reveals.

The licenses for new oil and gas fields expected to be awarded worldwide this year are set to generate the highest emission levels since 2018, according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). These activities occur as the planet faces heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and floods, causing widespread devastation.

The projected 11.9 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions, comparable to China's annual carbon output, from all current and upcoming oil and gas fields forecasted to be licensed by the end of 2024 exceed the combined emissions of the past four years. This figure includes licenses awarded as of June 2024 and those still under evaluation or planned.

Fossil fuel companies are investing more in developing new oil and gas sites than at any time since the 2015 Paris climate agreement, when governments globally committed to reducing emissions.

The wealthiest nations, best positioned economically and obligated under the Paris accords to lead the shift to cleaner energy, are paradoxically spearheading the latest drilling surge. These nations, despite having lower economic dependence on fossil fuels, issued 825 new licenses in 2023, the highest number on record.

Traditional "petrostates" like Saudi Arabia and Russia have faced criticism for their slow action on climate change. However, wealthy countries such as the UK, the US, Canada, Norway, and Australia are increasingly viewed as "other petrostates," given their financial and technological resources that could ease the transition to renewable energy.

While these countries are often seen as climate leaders, they are responsible for more than two-thirds (67%) of all new oil and gas licenses issued globally since 2020.

"The logical first step in a ‘transition away' from oil and gas is to stop opening new fields," said Olivier Bois von Kursk, an IISD policy adviser. "So it is deeply concerning that exploration activity has not just continued since the Cop28 agreement but increased. Rich countries with relatively low dependence on fossil fuel revenues should be the first to stop issuing licences. We're not seeing that in the data."

Under the Biden administration, the US has issued 1,453 new oil and gas licenses, accounting for half of the global total and 83% of all licenses issued by wealthy nations. This is 20% more than during Donald Trump's presidency, who has promised to "drill, baby, drill" if he returns to office.

The oil and gas industry continues to heavily influence politics, spending $1.25 billion on lobbying in Washington and more than $650 million in campaign contributions over the past decade, according to Open Secrets.

In May, the UK issued more licenses than any other country, although China, the world's largest carbon emitter, is projected to approve the most oil and gas blocks for the rest of 2024. The UK's newly elected Labour government has pledged to halt new drilling, but it remains unclear if the licenses issued by the outgoing Conservative party can be revoked.

IISD's analysis of industry and government data also shows:

• Over the past decade, new licenses issued by high-capacity, low-dependency countries (the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, and Norway) are estimated to have contributed five times more greenhouse gas emissions from 2014 to 2023 than all other oil- and gas-producing countries combined.
• The US, now the world's largest oil and gas producer, issued a record 758 new extraction project licenses in 2023, almost as many as the previous three years combined. The projected licenses for 2024 would result in an estimated 397 million tonnes of emissions.
• The UK is forecasted to issue 72 oil and gas licenses in 2024, leading to an estimated 101 million tonnes of emissions, the highest in 50 years.
• Norway is projected to issue 80 oil and gas licenses in 2024, resulting in 771 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions – the largest contribution since 2009, equivalent to putting 183 million new gasoline-powered cars on the road.
• Australia is expected to award 20 new licenses in 2024, potentially generating an estimated 217 million tonnes of carbon emissions – the highest since 2009 and more than the past five years combined.
• Russia will account for three-quarters of global emissions from new licenses awarded in June, according to the IISD.

Major oil and gas companies' spending on new well development has surged since the COVID-19 pandemic, with $302 billion allocated for 2024, the most in a decade.

The UK, Norwegian, and Australian governments disputed some figures and defended their climate policies. The US and Canada did not respond.

The surge in new oil and gas activities comes as July is on track to be the 14th consecutive hottest month on record, with communities worldwide grappling with extreme weather and slow-onset climate disasters like sea-level rise and melting glaciers. The last decade was the hottest ever recorded, with 2023 being the single hottest year.

A recent study found that current fossil fuel projects could meet global energy demand until 2050 if governments implement promised changes to meet climate targets. However, the ongoing oil and gas rush, driven by the richest countries, threatens to undermine efforts to stay within internationally agreed limits to prevent catastrophic climate impacts. The International Energy Agency has stated that no new oil and gas projects can proceed if the Paris agreement, which aims to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, is to be met.

Despite this, countries continue to expand oil and gas activities at a pace unseen since the Paris deal. Global fossil fuel consumption reached a record high last year, even as investment in clean energy like solar and wind began to outpace coal, oil, and gas. PetroChina has led in exploration and well development spending over the past decade, with ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, Sinopec, and Chevron also making significant investments.

In 2024, high-capacity, low-dependency countries, including the US, the UK, and Norway, issued 121 new licenses, more than the rest of the world combined. These newly licensed reserves, smaller and harder to reach, could generate 172 million tonnes of CO2, equivalent to 43 new coal plants.

These same countries are also pursuing industry-led "solutions" like carbon capture and storage and "blue" hydrogen, which independent experts say are inefficient, unjust, and economically damaging. This highlights a deep-seated inequity and climate justice issue that developing countries have raised at UN climate talks for years. Developed countries, which have historically contributed most to the climate crisis and benefited most from fossil fuels, must lead in phasing out fossil fuels and stopping expansion plans.

"The hypocrisy of wealthy nations, historically responsible for the climate crisis, is staggering as they continue to invest heavily in fossil fuels – putting the world on track for unimaginable climate catastrophe while claiming to be climate leaders," said Harjeet Singh, global engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.

Mega-licenses, which result in the most emissions, are typically awarded in developing countries like Mozambique, which have low capacity to transition away from oil and gas.

"The US has become a petrostate and is still, even under President Biden, permitting new drilling," said John Sterman, a climate policy expert at MIT. "The developed countries don't show any significant efforts to limit drilling, but it's not just them. Guyana and countries in Southeast Asia are also aggressively seeking to expand exploitation activity. This is about national policy but it's also being driven by the oil companies."

Sterman noted a "fundamental contradiction" between the promises made by countries at UN climate summits and the ongoing oil and gas expansion. "We can't keep going on like this," he said.

Five global north governments – the US, the UK, Australia, Canada, and Norway – are responsible for a majority (51%) of planned expansion from new oil and gas fields through 2050, standing out as the biggest climate hypocrites, according to the Planet Wreckers report by Oil Change International last year.

The Biden administration has defended its record, even as the US entrenched its position as the world's largest oil and gas producer. John Podesta, Biden's top climate adviser, said last month that US production was crucial following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which forced Europe to find alternative energy sources.

Podesta added, "But over time, the science is clear, we've got to transition away and begin to replace those resources with both zero carbon electricity and renewable resources."

Canada's Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, has defended the country's climate policies, praising its 2030 emissions reduction plan. In April, he stated that Canada was on a solid path toward its targets while making "historic investments in clean technology."

A spokesperson for the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said, "Making Britain a clean energy superpower is at the heart of the government's agenda, securing our energy independence and tackling the climate crisis… We will not issue new licences to explore new fields and will not revoke existing oil and gas licences. We will manage existing fields for the entirety of their lifespan."

Elisabeth Sæther, Norway's petroleum ministry state secretary, said her country was committed to reducing emissions. "At the same time, we see that the world will still need oil and gas," she added. "Europe will remain dependent on imports from other regions for many years. Norwegian oil and gas can contribute to a sustainable, affordable and secure energy supply."

A spokesperson for the Australian government stated, "Reaching net zero, and decarbonising our economy as quickly as possible, remains front and centre of the Albanese government's agenda. Our energy policies are sensible and pragmatic.