The United Nations Environment Programme's annual Emissions Gap Report indicates that under all scenarios except the "most optimistic," where significant cuts to fossil fuel use occur, the likelihood of limiting warming to the internationally agreed-upon target of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) is "virtually zero." The Paris Agreement, established in 2015, aims to restrict human-caused warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. Since the mid-1800s, global temperatures have already increased by 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), higher than earlier estimates due to last year's record heat.

Currently, the world is projected to reach a rise of 3.1 degrees Celsius (5.6 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial levels. However, if nations fully implement their proposed targets to the United Nations, warming could be limited to 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit). In a scenario where nations achieve net-zero carbon emissions by mid-century, there is a 23% chance of keeping warming at or below the 1.5 degrees target, though the more likely outcome would still be a rise to 1.9 degrees Celsius.

The report emphasizes that immediate action is crucial, stating, "It is now or never really if we want to keep 1.5 alive." UNEP Director Inger Andersen noted that without "swift and dramatic emission cuts," the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius will soon be unattainable. Current pledges by nations do not align with the actions needed, as a significant gap exists between stated targets and actual policies.

The 20 wealthiest countries, which are responsible for 77% of global carbon emissions, are falling short of their individual goals, with only 11 meeting their targets. While the report confirms that substantial cuts to emissions to achieve the 1.5-degree goal are feasible from both technical and economic perspectives, they are not being adequately proposed or executed.

Climate scientist Bill Hare remarked that governments are "sleepwalking towards climate chaos," while Johan Rockstrom expressed concern that the report's findings reflect a lack of progress and a trajectory toward disaster.

The report outlines what is known as an emissions gap, calculating how many billions of tons of greenhouse gases can be emitted while staying under specific warming thresholds. To limit warming to 1.5 degrees, emissions must be reduced by 42%, and for a 2-degree limit, a 28% reduction is necessary. In 2023, global greenhouse gas emissions reached 57.1 billion metric tons, averaging 1,810 metric tons of heat-trapping gases emitted every second.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of the direct connection between rising emissions and increasing climate disasters, emphasizing that the time for delaying action has passed.